The Back Bay's King Tides Fall in Thanksgiving Week and Christmas Week This Year

The lower marsh of Upper Newport Bay grows dense stands of tall cordgrass. Inside those stands, the Ridgway's rail builds a floating nest. It weaves dead stems into a platform that rises and falls with the tide, then bends the tips of the living grass over the top as a canopy. The bird flies poorly and moves on foot under that cover. According to the Newport Bay Conservancy, many of its own naturalists have never seen one, even though the Back Bay holds the largest subpopulation of the species left in the United States. The highest count, taken in 2005, found more than 170 breeding pairs.

High water changes that. When the tide floods the cordgrass, birds that usually stay hidden have less room to hide. This year, two of the three King Tides windows fall in holiday weeks, and the highest morning of the set is Christmas Eve.

Two of the Three Windows Fall in Holiday Weeks

Each winter the California Coastal Commission designates King Tides dates statewide. For the 2026–27 season they are Nov. 24–26, Dec. 23–25, and Jan. 21–22. The commission picks these dates from astronomical predictions as the year's highest tides. Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 26 this year, and Christmas Day falls on Friday, Dec. 25.

NOAA's nearest prediction station is Newport Bay Entrance at Corona del Mar, station 9410580. Its predictions give these morning highs, in feet above mean lower low water:

Christmas Eve morning has the highest prediction of the eight King Tides dates. February gives a useful comparison. Its highest predicted tide is 6.57 feet at 7:30 a.m. on Feb. 19, about six-tenths of a foot below the Christmas Eve peak. No February morning reaches the levels in the table.

Every high in the table arrives between 7:35 and 9:18 a.m. On each of the three runs the peak comes about 45 minutes later each day, so the last date in each set is the easiest one to reach after coffee.

What a Seven-Foot Morning Does to the Marsh

The Orange County Register covered a guided king-tide walk at Upper Newport Bay in January 2022. It reported that the peak raised the bay about 8 feet above usual before the water drained back out to sea by 3:30 p.m. The naturalist leading the group explained the season's range to the Register:

"During the king tides we get our lowest low tides of the year as well as the highest highs."

The same Register story described birds floating closer to the shoreline than usual. It also reported a group of endangered Ridgway's rails visible about 100 yards out. The reason is the rail's habitat. The Conservancy says the bird depends on cordgrass in the lower marsh, the zone that floods at high tide. When it does come out, it is most likely to be seen early in the morning, picking snails, crabs and insects from the tidal debris at the marsh edge. This winter, the early morning and the highest water arrive together.

The Conservancy asks that any sighting happen from marked trails and designated water areas. Visitors should stay out of the salt marsh and its side channels so the nesting process isn't disturbed. The tide figures above are predictions. The Coastal Commission notes that actual water levels can run higher than predicted under El Niño-linked conditions.

Where to Stand Before the Interpretive Center Opens

The timing creates one practical gap. The Peter and Mary Muth Interpretive Center keeps posted hours of Tuesday through Sunday, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. OC Parks lists it as closed Mondays and major holidays. Every predicted King Tides peak comes before the 10 a.m. opening, so the trail is the place to be on a king-tide morning.

The City of Newport Beach's trail map describes the Back Bay Trail as a 2.89-mile one-way route along a paved road. The Castaways Trail is a 1.02-mile one-way paved shared path. For the Back Bay Drive side, Sea & Sage Audubon uses the Big Canyon parking lot as its meeting point. To get there, take San Joaquin Hills Road west from Jamboree to Back Bay Drive, turn right, and follow the road until the lot appears on the left. For weather-related park and trail closures, the city points people to its Mudline and its text and email alerts. Checking them is worth a minute after a storm.

The Weeks Between the Tides

The king-tide mornings are the peaks of the season. The weeks around them have a steady schedule that helps you recognize what's in the water by the time Thanksgiving arrives. OC Parks says the bay's winter migration can bring as many as 35,000 birds at a time. Here is how the regular schedule falls across a week from now through late December:

1. Fridays, 9 a.m. to noon. The Newport Bay Conservancy holds Lower Constellation restoration mornings on Constellation Drive on Nov. 6 and 20 and Dec. 4 and 18. The work can include removing invasive plants, native planting, watering and cleanup. On Nov. 13, Dec. 11 and Dec. 18, Sow & Grow sessions move volunteers to the native plant nursery at the Back Bay Science Center.
2. Saturdays and Sundays, 10 a.m. to noon. Volunteer naturalists lead the Conservancy's Discover Upper Newport Bay Kayak Tour from Newport Aquatic Center. The first date is this Saturday, Nov. 7, and the last is Dec. 27. The Conservancy says winter outings may see migratory shorebirds, ducks and grebes.
3. Sundays, 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. Community Day at the Back Bay opens the Back Bay Science Center for self-guided visits from Nov. 8 through Dec. 27. Visitors can walk the Shellmaker Trail and see the teaching and aquatic labs and the native plant nursery.

Three dated outings fit around that weekly rhythm. On Wednesday, Nov. 18, Sea & Sage Audubon runs an Upper Newport Bay pontoon birding trip led by Darrell Wilson and Sally Menzel. It runs from 8:15 to 11:30 a.m., with an 8:30 departure. Tickets are $25, and advance registration is required. The trip comes six days before the first king tide.

On the Sunday after Thanksgiving, Nov. 29, Jim Kendall and Betty Kanne lead Sea & Sage's monthly Upper Newport Bay bird walk from 8 to 11:30 a.m., starting at the Big Canyon lot. The route takes in seasonal shorebirds, ducks, grebes, herons and egrets on the water, then continues through riparian woodland and coastal sage scrub. Sea & Sage notes that the spot is good for watching Black Skimmers and terns over the bay. The walk follows the Thanksgiving tides by three days, so it's a good chance to ask an experienced birder about anything seen on the high water.

For younger birders, OC Parks hosts a free, all-ages Nature Scavenger Hunt near the Muth Interpretive Center this Saturday, Nov. 7, from 9:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Registration is recommended, and walk-ups are welcome. Free Jr. Ranger programs for ages 7 to 12 run Nov. 20 and Dec. 3 from 3:30 to 5 p.m. Advance registration is required, and kids earn a badge after exploring the preserve.

After Christmas, the Count Comes Before the Last Tide

The weekend kayak tours and Sunday Community Days both end on Dec. 27. The season's last organized event comes before its last king tide. Sea & Sage Audubon's November 2026 newsletter schedules the Coastal Christmas Bird Count for Sunday, Jan. 3, 2027. The count circle runs from Seal Beach south to Newport Bay and inland to Santa Ana and Garden Grove. The January king tides follow on Thursday, Jan. 21, at 7:35 a.m. and Friday, Jan. 22, at 8:23 a.m. Both are weekday mornings and the last of the season's designated King Tides dates.

Knowing when the bay beside Dover Shores is at its fullest is the kind of local detail that belongs in an accurate valuation. If you're thinking about what your home is worth this winter, Kent Martin Group can prepare a free home valuation built on the specifics of your street and its setting by the bay.